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Macroeconomics

03
Jul

Is China Likely to Deal with an Economic or Financial Crisis? What About Other Economies?

Those who compare the 2020 situation to let’s say the Great Recession, in our opinion at least, oftentimes fail to understand the fundamental difference between an economic crisis that affects industry after industry in a meaningful manner and a financial crisis which came as a result of Wall Street recklessness correlated with consumer greed and

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30
Jun

How Low (and, Strangely Enough, High) Can the PBOC and Other Central Banks Go?

The aftermath of the Covid-19 situation made at least one aspect perfectly clear: governments and especially central banks do not intend to let the economic dimension of the crisis simply run its course and, on the contrary, have manifested a more than obvious intention of proverbially throwing the kitchen sink at the problem. The Beijing

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29
Jun

The “Deflation Followed by Inflation” Scenario for China and… Well, Everyone Else

It would perhaps be the understatement of the (21st) century that investors find it difficult to reconcile the fact that central banking policies have been “unorthodox” (extremely aggressive) for a very extended period of time with the fact that despite this aggressiveness, inflation problems haven’t surfaced. If anything, governments and central banks have been tacking

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27
Jun

Large-Scale Disaster Preparedness and Management in China vs. the West

If there is one thing the Covid-19 situation has made clear, it’s that more attention needs to be paid to the large-scale disaster preparedness and management dimension. In other words, to the manner in which countries are prepared to tackle proverbial white as well as black swans, whether we are referring to a virus and

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25
Jun

Potential Inflationary Covid-19 Effects in China and Elsewhere?

As an economist, you are taking on a great deal of professional risk by even pronouncing “the i-word” (inflation) at this point in time, the risk of being publicly ridiculed due to the fact that the status quo revolves so heavily around combating the exact opposite of inflation (on dealing with deflationary forces) that the

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17
Jun

How Has the Coronavirus Impacted China?

The coronavirus is currently reshaping the world we live in. Odds are that regardless of where you live, you’ve been impacted in some way, shape or form. Even if you haven’t gotten sick, you’ve probably been forced to work from home or quarantine yourself inside your home. A staggeringly large number of individuals have seen

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15
Jun

Global Deleveraging and Its (Potential) Impact on China

This much needs to be understood right off the bat: for our current (worldwide) economic system to survive, debt-fueled consumption is essential. To put it differently, what we are dealing with on a global scale is a “paradox of thrift” situation, where the global financial system and subsequently global economy would risk grinding to a

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13
Jun

China in the Context of a (Great) Depression?

Time and time again, analysts are voicing concerns about a potential recession in China, especially in a post-coronavirus framework. For example, scenarios which involve let’s say a one-year economic contraction, with the many consequences this brings about… not just for China but for everyone else as well, in the context of a deeply interconnected economy

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12
Jun

Just How Serious Would a Recession Scenario Be for China… and Everyone Else?

The economic landscape is pretty much always dominated by a wide range of controversial topics and among them, a popular one tends to be that of recessions, with two broad sides being relatively easily identifiable. On the one hand, there are those who consider recessions bitter but necessary medicine (Austrian Economists, for example) and believe

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11
Jun

Is the Trade War Good or Bad for China?

The trade war between the United States and China seemed to be all you heard about in 2018 and the beginning of 2019. Although it has taken a backseat to several more pressing issues that have come up recently, this figurative war is still raging. As a trade war between the world’s two largest economies

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