Macroeconomics

25
Nov

China and the Philippines: “Pivot to China” Despite South China Sea Tensions?

According to Pew Research Center data, over 90% of those who live in the Philippines are worried that tensions around geopolitical hot spots such as the South China Sea between China and its neighbors could lead to a military confrontation. And, indeed, the Philippines is a significant variable in the South China Sea equation, with

13
Nov

China, Inner Mongolia and… (Outer) Mongolia?

Misconceptions around this topic abound, starting with the very status of Mongolia itself. Is Mongolia an independent nation? Yes. Is Mongolia a part of China? Kind of. Does “Outer” Mongolia exist? Kind of… but not really. If you were not confused by now, you most certainly are at this point, so it is time to

08
Nov

Black Swan Events in China… or China as a Black Swan Event?

Throughout his books, Nassim Taleb frequently refers to so-called black swan events, which he explains through a now-famous turkey analogy. Simply put, a turkey who is fed each and every day by his generous owners has every reason to believe humans are his friends. With each day that passes, more data strengthens the turkey’s viewpoint…

28
Oct

Liquidity Crunch in the US: Implications for China?

Some investors have been spooked by the recent liquidity issues in the US repo market and the Federal Reserve’s subsequent attitude. As a brief explanation, a repo agreement or repurchase agreement is essentially a transaction between two entities, where the one in need of liquidity (the dealer) gives assets that it owns such as bonds

21
Oct

China’s Transportation/Logistics Industry: A Key to Success?

This much is certain: while China is not the only emerging market growth success story, it is without a doubt the most impressive one. What is considerably less certain, to the point of generating intense debates, is what exactly it is that enabled China to grow at such a remarkable pace. One of the top

06
Sep

Investing in China: “Fad” vs. Secular Mega-Trend

Many savvy marketers are quick to point out that in their opinion, humans make primarily emotion-driven decisions and justify them using reason. In other words, that perhaps most of the decisions we consider logic-based are actually nothing more than emotional decisions, cleverly designed by our ever-adapting brains. When it comes to the world of economics,

02
Sep

Sino-American Business Relationships: From Political Rhetoric to Win-Win Real World Situations

If one were to exclusively believe media outlets with respect to the general state of Sino-American relations, it wouldn’t be the least bit difficult to arrive at the conclusion that we are in an economic war zone situation. However, it is worth noting that sometimes, there are two parallel economic universes: the political dimension on

30
Aug

The (Economic) Future of China and That of the United States: A Few Long-Term Thoughts

When analyzing current China and US-related events, it is easy to succumb to the temptation of focusing exclusively on the past (historic trade volume patterns, GDP growth rates, etc.) and the present (describing whichever issue is currently “hot” or let’s say widely-debated), without giving enough thought to the future, especially longer-term considerations. As such, this

23
Aug

China and the Renminbi in the Context of a Currency Crisis?

On more than one occasion, we have discussed various scenarios which revolve around (potential) developments in China after a financial calamity here at ChinaFund.com. In fact, an entire article has been dedicated to just that. However, these discussions have primarily revolved around a DEFLATIONARY environment, in other words scenarios such as a market crash which

16
Aug

China, the Rise of Populism and (Geo)Political Correctness

Some of the most horrifying historical events are tied not directly but rather indirectly to financial calamities and the rise of populism in today’s Western world needs to be seen from precisely that perspective. In other words, it is historically unjustified to look for a simple “cause – effect” correlation, it tends to be remarkably