Current Affairs

29
Jun

The “Deflation Followed by Inflation” Scenario for China and… Well, Everyone Else

It would perhaps be the understatement of the (21st) century that investors find it difficult to reconcile the fact that central banking policies have been “unorthodox” (extremely aggressive) for a very extended period of time with the fact that despite this aggressiveness, inflation problems haven’t surfaced. If anything, governments and central banks have been tacking

25
Jun

Potential Inflationary Covid-19 Effects in China and Elsewhere?

As an economist, you are taking on a great deal of professional risk by even pronouncing “the i-word” (inflation) at this point in time, the risk of being publicly ridiculed due to the fact that the status quo revolves so heavily around combating the exact opposite of inflation (on dealing with deflationary forces) that the

24
Jun

China in a Post-Pandemic Geopolitical Framework: Global Solidarity vs. Isolationism

Something as devastating as a pandemic inevitably brings about economic consequences that can be remarkably difficult to identify… at least at the beginning. To make matters worse, the covid-19 pandemic also made “globalized” supply chain weaknesses as well as over-optimization (for example, business models which revolve around “production on demand” rather than expensive and logistically

16
Jun

Does China Consider Joe Biden a “Desirable” President?

This much is certain: while many Americans are quick to dismiss Joe Biden as yet another “mainstream” candidate who wants to do little more than preserve the status quo due to his let’s say centrist allure (compared to both Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders, two candidates who have made disrupting the system the focal point

15
Jun

Global Deleveraging and Its (Potential) Impact on China

This much needs to be understood right off the bat: for our current (worldwide) economic system to survive, debt-fueled consumption is essential. To put it differently, what we are dealing with on a global scale is a “paradox of thrift” situation, where the global financial system and subsequently global economy would risk grinding to a

12
Jun

Just How Serious Would a Recession Scenario Be for China… and Everyone Else?

The economic landscape is pretty much always dominated by a wide range of controversial topics and among them, a popular one tends to be that of recessions, with two broad sides being relatively easily identifiable. On the one hand, there are those who consider recessions bitter but necessary medicine (Austrian Economists, for example) and believe

07
Jun

Hard and Soft Landing Scenarios for China in the Context of Unprecedented Economic Interconnectedness

If we eliminate the time dimension from the equation, it isn’t the least bit difficult to state (in a quasi-axiomatic manner), that whenever there are imbalances when it comes to a certain nation, the market will ultimately figure out a way to re-establish balance. For example, if a country is overly indebted, the market will

19
May

Antitrust in China: The Anti-Monopoly Law (AML) and Its Enforcement

From tacking monopolies to discouraging the formation of cartels (a type of oligopoly) and acting as a collusion deterrent, the antitrust dimension of a legislative system has received quite a bit of attention in Western jurisdictions such as the United States, European Union and so on. Why? Simply because the three phenomenon types mentioned previously

13
Apr

(Coronavirus) Pandemics in China… and Elsewhere

In light of how much exposure the topic has received and in light of the fact that the effects of a pandemic (from the far more systemically serious coronavirus/covid-19 to the less problematic bird flu or anything else) most definitely go well beyond the medical dimension (with the economic one also being in the spotlight),

08
Apr

China’s Relationship with the United Kingdom from a Potential Post-Brexit Bilateral Trade Deal Perspective

Formally speaking, the Brexit has indeed taken place, a Brexit debacle that generated immense market-wide frustration in light of the (many!) failed negotiation attempts and quasi-ubiquitous lack of clarity when it comes to pretty much any imaginable topic. From reaching pragmatic agreements with the European Union to perhaps another Brexit vote, scenarios abounded to such