Macroeconomics

30
Mar

What If China’s Economy Stagnates? Economic Stagnation Scenarios Explored

Many investors are so accustomed to the idea that China’s economy has been “hot” (impressive YOY GDP growth rates, for example) for decades that they find the very idea that it might eventually stagnate apocalyptic. Would scenarios involving economic stagnation be catastrophic for China? Perhaps, but not necessarily. To be more precise, it would be

22
Mar

China’s Persian Gulf Interests or Why China Wants (Needs?) Peace

China wants peace in the Persian Gulf. It does sound like a rather amusing statement in light of the fact that, especially when it comes to the Donald Trump administration, China tends to be portrayed as the #1 adversary of the West, of human rights, of freedom or yes, even ultimately peace. While it is

21
Mar

China in the Context of a US-Iran-Centered Global Military Conflict

The assassination of Quassem Soleimani represents yet another piece in a (complex but coherent once you make sense of it) regional puzzle and the more pieces are added, the more we realize that a picture of a conflict between the US and Iran is being painted, with the many ramifications this brings about when other

20
Mar

China’s Interest(s) in the Strait of Hormuz from a 2020 US-Iran Conflict Perspective

It should come as no surprise that our readers are seeking clarity when it comes to many Iran-related aspects in light of the assassination of Qassem Soleimani and its consequences, with questions on their mind such as: How is Iran likely to retaliate? Will this retaliation be a calculated, tactical one, or something asymmetrical? How

16
Mar

China and Iran: From Silk Road Partners to Modern-Day Geopolitical Considerations

Normally, this post would have been scheduled for later this year (most likely toward the end of 2020) but for obvious reasons, Iran is in the spotlight and as such, it makes sense to put the economic (and otherwise) relationships between China and Iran under the microscope sooner rather than later. Right off the bat,

12
Mar

Gambling in China? Demand, Legislative Landscape and Solutions

Yes, gambling is illegal in China and technically speaking, any form of gambling has been outlawed since the Communist Party of China took over back in 1949. As such, at this point in time, anything from playing poker among friends with anything other than “make-pretend” money to gambling online is prohibited and punishable by law.

11
Mar

“Gamers” in China: The Remarkable Growth of China’s Online Gaming Sector

With an impressive $4.25 billion in gaming-related revenue projected for 2020 (a 0.8% YOY growth rate) and roughly 325 million gamers (a 2.1% YOY growth rate), it should come as no surprise that the stakes are remarkably high when it comes to China’s online gaming industry, in light of it representing the global leader in

29
Feb

Hyperinflation in China: Legitimate Threat or Unrealistic Scenario?

Hyperinflation represents one of the scenarios which makes investors tremble, with individuals imagining themselves pushing wheelbarrows full of paper currency to buy a loaf of bread. Scenes from Zimbabwe begin flooding their minds, with its (in)famous one hundred trillion dollar note or from Germany, with one US dollar going from being worth 4.2 marks prior

28
Feb

Stagflation Risks in China (and Elsewhere)

Under normal circumstances, whether we are referring to nations that can be considered highly developed based on nominal as well as per capita metrics (the United States and Germany, for example), under-developed nations or countries such as China that lie somewhere in-between (developed in nominal terms, under-developed based on per capita metrics), the relationship between

27
Feb

Inflation vs. Deflation: Implications for China

Time and time again, those in charge of monetary as well as fiscal policy try to find the right balance between avoiding deflation and not bringing about an inflationary spiral. The more let’s say vulnerable a nation is, the more it can be considered at risk from this perspective. To put it differently, things are