Macroeconomics

10
Jun

China’s Economic Growth Projection (5-10 years)

If you’ve been living in the U.S. for the past 10-20 years and keep up with the economy then chances are that China has come up in the conversation quite a bit. China is oftentimes considered the elephant in the room because they’ve been on an economic tear over the past several decades to rival

31
May

Just How Dependent Is China on the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)?

Time and time again, headlines surrounding various points of tension between the United States and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) pop up, with experts fervently commenting on one aspect or another of this equation but oftentimes ignoring the elephant in the room: the fact that at this point in time and most likely

30
May

Will PIIGS Fly? China’s Relationship With Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain

Few things scare markets more than deflationary crashes such as the 2007-2008 Great Recession but sovereign default scenarios most definitely do. Why? Simply because the status quo in terms of public discourse revolved around sovereigns being foolproof for an extended period of time, with occasional “Twilight Zone” situations such as ultra-vulnerable nations like Spain (which

29
May

China – UAE (United Arab Emirates) Relations Under the Microscope

Established back in 1984, it should come as any surprise to those familiar with let’s call them geopolitical realities that China – UAE relations have developed in a straightforward and positive manner, with the two pillars of this evolution being represented by the fact that: The trade dimension makes sense, with China for example being

28
May

China and Canada: Human Rights vs. Trade?

Trade with China has represented enough of an interest for Canada that even back in 1961, Canada’s prime minister at that point (John Diefenbaker) granted Canadian farmers access to China’s significant market despite the fact that diplomatic relations had not yet been established. As was the case with pretty much every other nation, diplomatic relations

27
May

The China – Mexico – United States Triangular Relationship: 1/5 of Worldwide Commerce and the Story Behind It

From many perspectives, China and Mexico can be considered competitors, especially when it comes to their goal of securing as much in terms of US market share for their exports as possible. Needless to say, it would be a “bit” of an understatement to point out that Mexico is highly dependent on the United States,

24
May

China and Thailand: A Pillar of ASEAN Stability?

For a very extended period of time, Siam/Thailand managed to figure out ways to effectively preserve its independence, primarily by appeasing the strongest powers of the time. Up until the 1850s, this strategy revolved around appeasing China due to it most definitely being the elephant in the room. As of that point and until the

14
May

Trying to Understand China’s Ever-Enigmatic Local Government Debt (LGD) and Local Government Financing Vehicles (LGFV)

Few topics generate more confusion than the local government debt (or) LGD one, in light of the fact that bookkeeping has been horrendous to such a degree that… well, pretty much nobody can clearly state how much debt we are even talking about, with estimates ranging from 35% to 60% of China’s GDP. At its

13
May

Household Debt in China: A Misunderstood and Underestimated Risk Factor?

We have dedicated an article to explaining what the three main types of debt are when it comes to China, an article to the elephant in the room which is the corporate debt dimension and another article to public debt, which is a boogeyman for countries such as Japan (with its public debt to GDP

12
May

Chinese Assets and Trading Volume: Volatility-Facilitated Opportunities or Recipes for Disaster?

One of the main mistakes made by retail investors revolves around limiting themselves to analyzing price action and assuming that is all there is to it. For example, they see an asset (Chinese or otherwise) which went up continuously for 4 months and assume that this price action is extraordinarily bullish, with FOMO (Fear Of