Our Blog

22
Jul

Is China One Huge Economic Bubble?

Whenever one comes across headlines such as those about China consuming more cement in two years than the United States throughout the entire 20th century, there’s a natural tendency to raise an eyebrow and wonder how sustainable China’s growth can be considered or even more so, if the entire construction isn’t actually just one huge

22
Jul

China’s Puzzling Contrast: Poverty Reduction vs. Inequality Increase

It goes without saying that China’s impressive post-1978 economic growth came with a more than significant poverty reduction. As inflation-adjusted income went up, the percentage of individuals living under the $1.9 per day poverty threshold plummeted, from almost 90% in the early 80s to low single digits today. However, a distinction needs to made between

21
Jul

China’s Retail Sales, Disposable Personal Income and Consumer Spending – Metrics for a Transitioning Economy

Perhaps the number one mistake analysts tend to make when trying to understand China’s economy pertains to simply acknowledging certain facts in a superficial, quasi-axiomatic manner. They read the right charts, draw the right conclusions but don’t internalize the importance of the mega-trends they’ve just been exposed to. If you ask them about China’s infrastructure,

21
Jul

The Cold War from a Chinese Perspective?

Words cannot begin to describe how important the difference between “getting” and “not getting” China is for an investor or potential investor. The difference between a superficial headline-based perspective on China which revolves around “facts” that are either incorrect or dated and a perspective based on a meaningful understanding of China’s past and present. And,

20
Jul

China’s Infrastructure Investments: Facts, Myths and Context

Few forces can even come close to competing with China’s infrastructure spending in terms of domestic and international impact. Unfortunately, as it tends to happen with generation-defining narratives, inaccurate information abounds. From those who underestimate the importance of infrastructure spending when analyzing China’s GDP growth pattern to analysts on the other end of the spectrum,

20
Jul

China’s Rural vs. Urban Population: Past, Present and Context

A story of GDP growth? Or maybe the story of the world’s most robust emerging middle class? Perhaps a story of gradual geopolitical dominance progress? There a quite a few headlines which describe China’s post-1978 journey. Yet an equally important one tends to receive less attention, the story of China’s massive urbanization, with its various

19
Jul

The Future of China’s Future: The Chinese Education System

It’s a quasi-axiom that by investing in its education system, a country is essentially investing in its future. From (relatively distant) historic examples such as Adam’s Smith work back in 1776 (when he claimed that the wealth of a nation lies not in the resources it can exploit but rather in the productive capacity of

18
Jul

The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB): WB/IMF Threat or Complementary Solution?

It’s not even a matter of debate that China’s political influence has gone up tremendously, not just in the Asia-Pacific region but globally as well, with China reaching out in a meaningful manner to pretty much all geopolitical players, including African nations. However, this political influence frequently comes with a price tag, one that can

17
Jul

China’s Military Sector: From Modernization to Tackling Corruption

For an extended period of time, before Deng Xiaoping’s post-1978 reforms started kicking in, the Chinese military industry was best described by insiders as being in a “golden rice bowl” situation or in other words, receiving a significant percentage of China’s GDP but always somehow needing more and asking for more. Deng Xiaoping decided it

17
Jul

The Good, the Bad and the Misleading: China’s Population

The fact that China’s population number lies north of 1.4 billion represents an element which one cannot afford to overlook in a detailed analysis. Sometimes, this number comes with positive implications, whereas oftentimes, it can be misleading and make us believe that China’s dominance in certain sectors is a function of its efficiency… when in