Macroeconomics

14
Aug

The Renminbi vs. Western Currencies: An Inflationary “Paradigm Shift” Perspective

As an economist, you oftentimes risk ridicule for the mere mention of the word “inflation” among your peers, for the simple reason that in the recent and relatively recent past, deflationary rather than inflationary forces needed to be tackled. Over the past not decade but (two) decades, we have witnessed a downright collapse in the

11
Aug

Chinese Savers in a Currency Debasement Framework

On more than one occasion, we have explained that compared to Western savers (who have flaws of their own, of course), Chinese savers are let’s say less sophisticated for a wide range of reasons. Before continuing with this article, it therefore makes sense to enumerate the most important reasons and take it from there. Please

07
Aug

Post-2020 Consumption Trends and How They Risk Affecting China

As an investor who is interested in gaining exposure to Chinese assets or already has a portfolio which contains Chinese assets, perhaps the number one mistake you need to avoid in 2020 and beyond revolves around under-estimating the magnitude of post-2020 consumption trends. The ChinaFund.com team cannot help but feel frustrated when coming across comments

04
Aug

- International Relations
- Macroeconomics
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Can China “Print” Its Way to Prosperity? What About… Everyone Else?

In a previous article, we have explained that despite what some economists claim to be a “new paradigm” of central banking, there is a limit as to just how low interest rates can go. Simply put, while savers are willing to tolerate low or even slightly negative interest rates for reasons which range from convenience

03
Aug

How Low Can Interest Rates Go in China and the West?

The overwhelming majority of economists (yours truly included) who recommended preparing for the next financial/economic calamity in the aftermath of the Great Recession (I for one have even written a Wall Street Journal and USA Today best-selling book on the topic back in 2018, The Age of Anomaly) have suspected to the point of being

01
Aug

Money on the Sidelines: The Implications of Indecisiveness in China and the West

2020’s realities, from an economic perspective, seem peculiar to say the least in light of the many powerful contradictory forces that are influencing human activity at the same time. In the spotlight, we have the COVID-19 (of course) implications which are heavily deflationary. Contrary to what happened with the Great Recession, where a financial crisis

31
Jul

Are There “Winners” of the 2020 Crisis?

2020 has most definitely been a depressing year for the overwhelming majority of individuals, with political leaders and business owners for the most part not representing exceptions. However, “for the most part” is the operative term because time and time again, there are so-called antifragile businesses as Nassim Taleb calls them or in other words,

29
Jul

Are Chinese and Western Savers Being Bailed Out or Sacrificed?

Here at ChinaFund.com and on pretty much any let’s call it financial outlet, quite a bit of energy has been continuously dedicated to market participants (from the average consumer to large corporations) who have been caught off-guard by 2020’s developments or, the same way, by the Great Recession or any other past calamity. We’ve written

28
Jul

Are Chinese and Western Small Businesses Caught in the Post-2020 Crossfire?

The bailout of Boeing and other large companies by the United States has made a mega-trend crystal clear: small business owners are growing increasingly frustrated with the attention “systemically relevant” corporations are receiving and the fact that, just like in the aftermath of the Great Recession, large entities are positioning themselves as spoiled children of

27
Jul

- International Relations
- Macroeconomics
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The “End” of Globalization? A Chinese Perspective

Pretty much any intellectually honest observer who has been keeping a close eye on geopolitical developments since at least 2016 can confirm that globalization hasn’t exactly been on a popularity increase spree. From let’s call them victories of isolationism such as the 2016 Brexit vote and the 2016 US elections to shocks such as the