Investing in China

20
Apr

Types of Investors in Chinese Assets – A (Not So) Brief Overview

Just like with pretty much any other asset class, there is immense variety when it comes to categories of market participants who invest in Chinese assets. You can think of this article as an exercise with respect to getting to know your fellow market participants, it is ultimately up to you whether you see it

19
Apr

Investing in (Today’s) China from a Contrarian Perspective

To clarify this aspect right from the beginning, a contrarian investor is someone who doesn’t mind trading against the proverbial crowd and, on the contrary (pun intended), builds his entire investment model around identifying instances in which the market is so wrong that asymmetrical opportunities pertaining to “betting” against it present themselves. In an ideal

18
Apr

China in a Negative Interest Rate Environment

Some observers like to more or less jokingly point out that we are living, from a monetary perspective at least, in a bit of an economic twilight zone in light of the fact that in terms of (one again, especially monetary) policy, we are most definitely in what can be considered uncharted territory. To put

17
Apr

United States Pre-2020 Stock Market Euphoria from China’s Perspective

For many US stock market observers and especially participants, “panic” seemed to be a term long-forgotten prior to 2020’s developments. Indeed, the days of Mortgage-Backed Securities and other toxic financial products bringing the worldwide (rather than US-only) financial system to its knees seemed to be behind us, with stock markets flirting with all-time highs and

16
Apr

Diminishing Returns in China… and the West?

We aren’t going to refer to “diminishing returns” in the microeconomic sense (as a decrease in the marginal output correlated with an incremental increase of a single factor of production) but rather in a broader manner, by taking a look at just how much of an increase in credit-fueled firepower is necessary to maintain economic

15
Apr

Could China Fail?

This is perhaps the broadest but at the same time most difficult question that even die-hard China bulls are most likely plagued by… whether they are willing to admit it is an entirely different discussion. The bottom line is that at least in the back of your mind, no matter how optimistic you are or

07
Apr

Is China Antifragile?

In light of how often the adversarial relationships between either China and the United States or China and the proverbial West are discussed, one might assume that China always stands to gain after negative developments in the United States and/or in the West. Antifragility is a term popularized by Nassim Nicholas Taleb (and which constitutes

30
Mar

What If China’s Economy Stagnates? Economic Stagnation Scenarios Explored

Many investors are so accustomed to the idea that China’s economy has been “hot” (impressive YOY GDP growth rates, for example) for decades that they find the very idea that it might eventually stagnate apocalyptic. Would scenarios involving economic stagnation be catastrophic for China? Perhaps, but not necessarily. To be more precise, it would be

28
Mar

China and the Fear of Missing Out (FOMO)

Whenever we are dealing with let’s call them “hot” assets (and yes, Chinese assets most definitely fit this description), greed tends to kick in and determine market participants to get ahead of themselves with respect to gaining exposure to the assets in question. The term “FOMO” (Fear Of Missing Out) is quite relevant in this

27
Mar

Can (Chinese) Asset Prices Be Manipulated?

Whether we are referring to low-liquidity markets such as cryptocurrencies, more liquid ones such as certain Chinese assets and even ultra-liquid markets like the S&P 500 or foreign exchange pairs, discussions or better stated controversies surrounding the manipulation of the asset(s) in question abound, usually manipulation involving either one extremely well-funded entity (or “whale”) or