China-Related Conspiracy Theories: Motivation, Interpretation, Substance… and Lack Thereof

This is a topic we believe needs to be addressed thoroughly because as an investor in Chinese assets or someone who is thinking about gaining exposure to Chinese assets, you are literally bombarded with more or less reasonable scenarios pertaining to China, many of which venture well into conspiracy theory territory. Right from the beginning,


The United States and China in a Cold War 2.0 Context?

More and more market observers are using terms such as ”Cold War 2.0” to describe a potential trajectory with respect to the obvious tensions between China and the United States. This discussion gives the team a reasonable enough context to make one of its viewpoints perfectly clear: it might be wise to stop imagining


Is China’s Economic Growth Hurting Other Countries?

When it comes to matters of economics, the team firmly believes it is crucial to take a certain topic that perhaps asks a surface-level question and gradually dig deeper, until the root issue is finally addressed. By now, it should be obvious to anyone who hasn’t been living under a proverbial rock that tensions


What If China’s Economy Stagnates? Economic Stagnation Scenarios Explored

Many investors are so accustomed to the idea that China’s economy has been “hot” (impressive YOY GDP growth rates, for example) for decades that they find the very idea that it might eventually stagnate apocalyptic. Would scenarios involving economic stagnation be catastrophic for China? Perhaps, but not necessarily. To be more precise, it would be


Can (Chinese) Asset Prices Be Manipulated?

Whether we are referring to low-liquidity markets such as cryptocurrencies, more liquid ones such as certain Chinese assets and even ultra-liquid markets like the S&P 500 or foreign exchange pairs, discussions or better stated controversies surrounding the manipulation of the asset(s) in question abound, usually manipulation involving either one extremely well-funded entity (or “whale”) or


The Flight from (Over-)Regulation to and from China?

Time and time again, public discourse ends up being dominated by headlines revolving around government intervention, more specifically what is expected by the government when it comes to a wide range of public interest topics. For example: What should governments do to tackle global warming? What should governments do to tackle inequality? What should governments


China’s Relationship with Afghanistan, Iraq and Other Volatile Nations in the Context of US-Iran Tensions

This much is certain: after 9/11, the United States has embarked on a very aggressive geopolitical journey, one with a remarkably high price tag attached to it, a price which did result in geopolitical benefits but… well, highly volatile ones. For the most part, these benefits revolve around the dominance of the petrodollar or, to


The Chinese Implications of Qasem Soleimani’s Death: Geopolitical Black Swan Event?

On more than one occasion here at, we have made it clear that while let’s call it linear (economic) threat analysis certainly has its merits and while there is absolutely nothing wrong with looking at the most obvious threats, black swan events deserve our attention as well and Qasem Soleimani’s death is an example


China’s Ambivalent Relationship with Western Tech Giants: Google, Amazon, etc.

In the proverbial West, it is difficult to envision an Internet landscape which isn’t dominated by Google, Amazon and other Western behemoths, behemoths which have been fortifying their positions for so long that it is difficult to the point of impossible for their supremacy to be meaningfully threatened by newcomers. For example, in a heavily


(Why) Is China the Top Beneficiary of Globalization?

Frustrations surrounding an alleged “free ride” that certain countries have been getting as a result of globalization have been building up in the proverbial West for quite a while, with the year 2016 being perhaps a textbook example to that effect in light of two events which have both proven that a significant segment of